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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Gubbio v Athletic Carpi: numbers & prediction

Serie C Girone B · Italy · Stadio Pietro Barbetti

Gubbio

WLD
2–1
FT

Athletic Carpi

WD
Gubbio 38%Draw 27%Athletic Carpi 35% Expected goals 0.99 – 1.19
64%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2

Value bet: Athletic Carpi to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultGubbio to win ✓38% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓7% · fair 15.09

Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Wednesday 4 March the Serie C Girone B brings Gubbio against Athletic Carpi at Stadio Pietro Barbetti. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT.

Current form

Gubbio, last 3: WLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Guidonia Montecelio 1937, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Gubbio 1.0 xG, Athletic Carpi 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Gubbio 38%, draw 27%, Athletic Carpi 35%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Athletic Carpi to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 35%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gubbio 1–1 Athletic Carpi. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Gubbio38%fair 2.66 · @2.10
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.00
Athletic Carpi35%fair 2.84 · @3.40
2.18Expected goals
0.99Gubbio xG
1.19Athletic Carpi xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%

From our goals model: Gubbio 1.0 – 1.2 Athletic Carpi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

GubbioAthletic Carpi
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average-34%+8%
Goals conceded vs average+17%+0%
Our expected goals here0.901.51

Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGubbio to win ✓38%2.662.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73%1.371.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.852.00 ▲
Draw no betGubbio (draw no bet) ✓52%1.94–
Asian handicapGubbio +1 (Asian handicap) ✓78%1.29–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓64%1.571.48
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗62%1.601.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81%1.231.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓93%1.08–
First team to scoreAthletic Carpi to score first ✗48%2.07–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗48%2.10–
Half-time / full-timeHT Athletic Carpi / FT Athletic Carpi ✗23%4.35–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓7%15.09–

Recent results

Gubbio – last 3

WLD
1 Mar@ Guidonia Montecelio 19371–0W
21 Febvs Arezzo0–1L
15 Feb@ Pontedera1–1D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Athletic Carpi – last 2

WD
22 Febvs Bra2–1W
15 Feb@ Perugia1–1D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Gubbio and Athletic Carpi.

Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi head-to-head page →

Serie C Girone B table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Spezia131120+1935
2Ravenna13922+1729
3Grosseto13652+823
4Pescara13643+422
5Torres13643+322
6Reggiana13625+420
7Guidonia Montecelio 193713553+320
8Livorno13553+120
9Campobasso FC13544-219
10Atalanta II13607-318
11Pineto13454-217
12Perugia13526-317
13Vado13445-116
14Forli13364-115
15Latina13364-215
16Pianese13274-313
17Sambenedettese13247-510
18Ostia Mare13238-99
19Gubbio13229-128
20Vis Pesaro131210-165

More Serie C Girone B predictions

League hub
FT Pontedera0 Juventus U231 134%2.75X27%3.20239%2.40 1.2–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Vis Pesaro2 Bra1 145%1.85X26%3.30228%3.85 1.3–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Livorno1 Perugia2 142%2.33X25%3.10232%2.85 1.4–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.38 ✓
FT Torres2 Guidonia Montecelio 19371 150%1.95X29%3.00221%3.90 1.3–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✗
FT Ravenna0 Pianese0 160%1.67X25%3.45215%4.80 1.6–0.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Pineto3 Forli2 138%2.30X28%3.10233%2.95 1.2–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✗
FT Arezzo1 Ternana2 153%1.77X25%3.20222%4.40 1.5–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 68%@1.44 ✓
FT Sambenedettese0 Ascoli1 127%3.50X26%3.10247%2.05 1.0–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.48 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?

On our numbers Gubbio have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Athletic Carpi 35%.

How many goals will there be in Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?

Our predicted score is Gubbio 1–1 Athletic Carpi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi?

Gubbio vs Athletic Carpi (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pietro Barbetti.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.