Livorno v Perugia Prediction & Expected Goals (4 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultLivorno to win ✗42% · @2.33

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.83

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24

Livorno vs Perugia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Livorno welcome Perugia to Stadio Armando Picchi for a Serie C Girone B fixture on Wednesday 4 March (20:30 WAT). In the table, Livorno are 8th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Perugia are 12th (lower half) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Livorno 1.4 xG, Perugia 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Livorno 42%, draw 25%, Perugia 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 58%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Livorno 1–1 Perugia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Livorno42%fair 2.37 · @2.33

Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.10

Perugia32%fair 3.09 · @2.85

2.64Expected goals

1.44Livorno xG

1.19Perugia xG

58%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–010%

2–19%

0–19%

2–07%

1–27%

From our goals model: Livorno 1.4 – 1.2 Perugia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

	Livorno	Perugia
Attack vs Serie C Girone B average	+8%	+13%
Goals conceded vs average	+1%	+17%
Our expected goals here	1.71	1.35

Livorno

Perugia

Attack vs Serie C Girone B average

+8%

+13%

Goals conceded vs average

+1%

+17%

Our expected goals here

1.71

1.35

Our own ratings from every Serie C Girone B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Livorno to win ✗	42%	2.37	2.33
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.34	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	58%	1.72	1.83 ▲
Draw no bet	Livorno (draw no bet) ✗	57%	1.77	–
Asian handicap	Perugia +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	73%	1.36	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	71%	1.41	1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.86	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	–
First team to score	Livorno to score first	51%	1.97	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.34	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Livorno / FT Livorno ✗	25%	3.97	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.24	–

Market

Most likely

Chance

Fair odds

Bookmaker

Match result

Livorno to win ✗

42%

2.37

2.33

Double chance

Either team to win ✓

75%

1.34

1.28

Both teams to score

Both teams to score ✓

58%

1.72

1.83 ▲

Draw no bet

Livorno (draw no bet) ✗

57%

1.77

–

Asian handicap

Perugia +1 (Asian handicap) ✓

73%

1.36

–

Over/under 1.5 goals

Over 1.5 goals ✓

71%

1.41

1.38

Over/under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals ✗

54%

1.86

1.65

Over/under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals ✓

75%

1.34

1.22

Over/under 4.5 goals

Under 4.5 goals ✓

87%

1.15

–

First team to score

Livorno to score first

51%

1.97

–

Half-time result

Level at half-time ✓

43%

2.34

–

Half-time / full-time

HT Livorno / FT Livorno ✗

25%

3.97

–

Correct score

Correct score 2–1 ✗

11.24

–

Recent results

Head to head

Serie C Girone B table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	+19	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	+17	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	+8	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	+4	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	+3	22
6	Reggiana	13	6	2	5	+4	20
7	Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	+3	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	+1	20
9	Campobasso FC	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Atalanta II	13	6	0	7	-3	18
11	Pineto	13	4	5	4	-2	17
12	Perugia	13	5	2	6	-3	17
13	Vado	13	4	4	5	-1	16
14	Forli	13	3	6	4	-1	15
15	Latina	13	3	6	4	-2	15
16	Pianese	13	2	7	4	-3	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	-5	10
18	Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	-9	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	-12	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	-16	5

Team

Pts

+19

+17

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

-2

-3

-2

-3

-1

-1

-2

-3

-5

-9

-12

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Livorno vs Perugia?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.

Who will win Livorno vs Perugia?

On our numbers Livorno have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Perugia 32%.

How many goals will there be in Livorno vs Perugia?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Livorno vs Perugia?

Our predicted score is Livorno 1–1 Perugia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Livorno vs Perugia?

Livorno vs Perugia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Armando Picchi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

21 Feb	vs Pineto	1–0	W
15 Feb	vs Pianese	1–2	L

Livorno v Perugia: numbers & prediction

Livorno

Perugia

Over 1.5 goals

Picks by market

Livorno vs Perugia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Where the goals come from

Markets worth a look

Our call before kick-off

Result chances

Score grid: top six

Team ratings (Betarazi)

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Recent results

Livorno – last 2

Perugia – last 1

Head to head

Serie C Girone B table

More Serie C Girone B predictions

Frequently asked questions