Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultQarabag to win ✗59% · @1.25
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✗83% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.48
Kapaz vs Qarabag: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Kapaz welcome Qarabag for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Friday 20 March (12:00 WAT). In the table, Kapaz are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Qarabag are 4th (among the top four) with 19. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Kapaz, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Turan, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Qarabag, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 6–0 win over Araz, at home. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game.
Momentum favours Qarabag, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Kapaz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kapaz 0.9 xG, Qarabag 1.6 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kapaz 17%, draw 24%, Qarabag 59%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kapaz 1–1 Qarabag. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kapaz17%fair 5.89 · @10.00
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @4.75
Qarabag59%fair 1.68 · @1.25
2.56Expected goals
0.93Kapaz xG
1.63Qarabag xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Kapaz 0.9 – 1.6 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✗
59%
1.68
1.25
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Qarabag (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Kapaz +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Qarabag to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
33%
3.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.48
–
Recent results
Kapaz – last 6
DDLWLL
15 Mar
vs Turan
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Zira
2–2
D
5 Mar
vs Turan
0–2
L
27 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Sabah FA
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WWDLLW
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
1 Mar
vs Sabah FA
3–3
D
24 Feb
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
18 Feb
vs Newcastle
1–6
L
14 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
1–0
W
2.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Qarabag.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kapaz vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Qarabag 59%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 1–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Kapaz vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
