Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓60% · @1.50
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓84% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:30 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Kapaz v Neftchi Baku in the Premyer Liqa. In the table, Kapaz are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kapaz 0.9 xG, Neftchi Baku 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kapaz 16%, draw 24%, Neftchi Baku 60%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kapaz16%fair 6.15 · @6.20
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.60
Neftchi Baku60%fair 1.68 · @1.50
2.52Expected goals
0.86Kapaz xG
1.66Neftchi Baku xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Kapaz 0.9 – 1.7 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
60%
1.68
1.50
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Kapaz +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.49
–
Recent results
Kapaz
No recent results on record.
Neftchi Baku
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Neftchi Baku.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Neftchi Baku 60%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 0–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku?
Kapaz vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
