Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSumqayıt to win ✗39% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.34
Araz vs Sumqayıt: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Araz welcome Sumqayıt to Liv Bona Dea Arena for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Sunday 15 February (14:00 WAT). In the table, Araz are 12th, in the drop zone, on 4 points after 11 matches; Sumqayıt are 9th (lower half) with 10.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Araz 1.5 xG, Sumqayıt 1.6 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 49% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Araz 35%, draw 26%, Sumqayıt 39%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.48 – longer than our fair 1.39, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Araz 1–1 Sumqayıt. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Araz35%fair 2.87 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.85
Sumqayıt39%fair 2.55 · @2.65
3.06Expected goals
1.45Araz xG
1.61Sumqayıt xG
60%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Araz 1.5 – 1.6 Sumqayıt expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sumqayıt to win✗
39%
2.55
2.65
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Sumqayıt (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Araz +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.48 ▲
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
First team to score
Sumqayıt to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sumqayıt / FT Sumqayıt✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.34
–
Recent results
Araz
No recent results on record.
Sumqayıt
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Araz and Sumqayıt.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Araz vs Sumqayıt?
On our numbers Araz have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sumqayıt 39%.
How many goals will there be in Araz vs Sumqayıt?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Araz vs Sumqayıt?
Our predicted score is Araz 1–1 Sumqayıt, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Araz vs Sumqayıt?
Araz vs Sumqayıt (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Liv Bona Dea Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
