Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSumqayıt to win ✗42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.82
Kapaz vs Sumqayıt: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sumqayıt travel to face Kapaz on Friday 27 February in the Premyer Liqa – the ball rolls at 11:30 WAT. In the table, Kapaz are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Sumqayıt are 9th (lower half) with 10.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kapaz 1.2 xG, Sumqayıt 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kapaz 32%, draw 26%, Sumqayıt 42%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kapaz 1–1 Sumqayıt. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kapaz32%fair 3.16 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @3.20
Sumqayıt42%fair 2.38 · @2.15
2.54Expected goals
1.20Kapaz xG
1.33Sumqayıt xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Kapaz 1.2 – 1.3 Sumqayıt expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sumqayıt to win✗
42%
2.38
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Sumqayıt (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Kapaz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Sumqayıt to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sumqayıt / FT Sumqayıt✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.82
–
Recent results
Kapaz – last 2
LL
22 Feb
@ Sabah FA
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sumqayıt – last 2
DL
20 Feb
vs Qabala
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Araz
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Sumqayıt.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Kapaz vs Sumqayıt?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sumqayıt 42%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Sumqayıt?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Sumqayıt?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 1–1 Sumqayıt, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Sumqayıt?
Kapaz vs Sumqayıt (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
