Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✗52% · @1.91
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓77% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.37
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:30 WAT, Saturday 28 February: Keshla FC v Neftchi Baku in the Premyer Liqa, played at Shamakhi City Stadium. In the table, Keshla FC are 7th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Keshla FC 1.0 xG, Neftchi Baku 1.6 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Keshla FC 23%, draw 25%, Neftchi Baku 52%.
Lower-risk option: Neftchi Baku or draw (77%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi Baku or draw (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Keshla FC 1–1 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Keshla FC23%fair 4.42 · @4.10
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @2.95
Neftchi Baku52%fair 1.91 · @1.91
2.63Expected goals
1.03Keshla FC xG
1.59Neftchi Baku xG
55%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Keshla FC 1.0 – 1.6 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✗
52%
1.91
1.91
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)
70%
1.43
–
Asian handicap
Keshla FC +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✗
30%
3.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.54
–
Recent results
Keshla FC – last 2
DD
22 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Turan
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 1
W
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Keshla FC and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Keshla FC have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Neftchi Baku 52%.
How many goals will there be in Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Keshla FC 1–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku?
Keshla FC vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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