Value bet: Kapaz to win @ 2.70 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultKapaz to win ✗42% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.38
Kapaz vs Qabala: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Qabala travel to face Kapaz on Sunday 5 April in the Premyer Liqa – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Kapaz are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Qabala are 10th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Kapaz, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Qarabag, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Qabala, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Neftchi Baku, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game.
Momentum favours Kapaz, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.2 for Qabala.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kapaz 1.4 xG, Qabala 1.0 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kapaz 42%, draw 28%, Qabala 30%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Kapaz to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kapaz 1–0 Qabala. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kapaz42%fair 2.39 · @2.70
Draw28%fair 3.52 · @2.95
Qabala30%fair 3.36 · @2.55
2.33Expected goals
1.38Kapaz xG
0.96Qabala xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–010%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Kapaz 1.4 – 1.0 Qabala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kapaz to win✗
42%
2.39
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.40
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.83
Draw no bet
Kapaz (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Qabala +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Kapaz to score first✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kapaz / FT Kapaz✗
27%
3.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.38
–
Recent results
Kapaz – last 6
WDDLWL
20 Mar
vs Qarabag
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Turan
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Zira
2–2
D
5 Mar
vs Turan
0–2
L
27 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
3–0
W
22 Feb
@ Sabah FA
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Qabala – last 5
LLLDL
15 Mar
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
10 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–7
L
24 Feb
vs Turan
0–3
L
20 Feb
@ Sumqayıt
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Sabah FA
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kapaz and Qabala.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Kapaz vs Qabala?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Qabala 30%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Qabala?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Qabala?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 1–0 Qabala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Qabala?
Kapaz vs Qabala (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
