Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓52% · @1.85
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.34
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sumqayıt welcome Neftchi Baku to Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Sunday 5 April (15:00 WAT). In the table, Sumqayıt are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sumqayıt, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Sabah FA, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Neftchi Baku, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 6–0 win over Imisli FK, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.3 for Sumqayıt.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sumqayıt 1.1 xG, Neftchi Baku 1.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sumqayıt 22%, draw 25%, Neftchi Baku 52%.
Lower-risk option: Neftchi Baku or draw (78%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi Baku or draw (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sumqayıt 1–1 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sumqayıt22%fair 4.50 · @4.00
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.25
Neftchi Baku52%fair 1.91 · @1.85
2.88Expected goals
1.15Sumqayıt xG
1.73Neftchi Baku xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–28%
1–06%
2–16%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 1.1 – 1.7 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Sumqayıt +1 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.34
–
Recent results
Sumqayıt – last 6
LLDLLD
19 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs Keshla FC
0–1
L
7 Mar
@ Karvan
1–1
D
3 Mar
@ Zira
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Kapaz
0–3
L
20 Feb
vs Qabala
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 5
WWLDW
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Neftchi Baku 52%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 1–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
