Neftchi Baku 62%Draw 22%Şamaxı FK 16%Expected goals 1.97 – 0.94
76%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win62% · @1.48
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw84% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.06
Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:30 WAT, Sunday 10 May: Neftchi Baku v Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa, played at Palms Sports Arena. In the table, Neftchi Baku are 1st, leading the league, on 24 points after 11 matches; Şamaxı FK are 7th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Neftchi Baku, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Karvan, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Şamaxı FK, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Sabah FA, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Şamaxı FK.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Feb 2026) it ended Keshla FC 2–2 Neftchi Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi Baku 2.0 xG, Şamaxı FK 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 54% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi Baku 62%, draw 22%, Şamaxı FK 16%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi Baku 2–0 Şamaxı FK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi Baku62%fair 1.61 · @1.48
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.90
Şamaxı FK16%fair 6.11 · @6.00
2.91Expected goals
1.97Neftchi Baku xG
0.94Şamaxı FK xG
54%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 2.0 – 0.9 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Şamaxı FK 16%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 2–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Karvan0