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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Tunisia v Netherlands: numbers & prediction

World Cup · World · Arrowhead Stadium

Tunisia

LLLLD
1–3
FT

Netherlands

WDWLD
Tunisia 14%Draw 15%Netherlands 71% Expected goals 1.26 – 2.54
70%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.42Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.65 – our chance 54% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +44%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultNetherlands to win ✓71% · @1.08
Double chanceNetherlands or draw ✓86% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.99

Tunisia vs Netherlands: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Friday 26 June the World Cup brings Tunisia against Netherlands at Arrowhead Stadium. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT.

Current form

Tunisia, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Japan, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.

Netherlands, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Sweden, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.

Momentum favours Netherlands, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Tunisia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Tunisia 1.3 xG, Netherlands 2.5 xG – a total near 3.8. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Tunisia 14%, draw 15%, Netherlands 71%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.65.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 54%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tunisia 1–2 Netherlands. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Tunisia14%fair 7.29 · @19.50
Draw15%fair 6.46 · @10.75
Netherlands71%fair 1.41 · @1.08
3.80Expected goals
1.26Tunisia xG
2.54Netherlands xG
54%Both score
70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–29%
1–38%
0–27%
1–17%
0–36%
2–26%

From our goals model: Tunisia 1.3 – 2.5 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNetherlands to win ✓71%1.411.08
Double chanceNetherlands or draw ✓86%1.161.01
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.842.65 ▲
Draw no betNetherlands (draw no bet) ✓84%1.19–
Asian handicapNetherlands -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.54–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓87%1.151.11
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70%1.431.42
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗51%1.971.75
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓70%1.441.30
First team to scoreNetherlands to score first ✓65%1.53–
Half-time resultNetherlands ahead at half-time ✓49%2.03–
Half-time / full-timeHT Netherlands / FT Netherlands ✓43%2.31–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.99–

Recent results

Tunisia – last 6

LLLLDW
21 Junvs Japan0–4L
15 Jun@ Sweden1–5L
6 Jun@ Belgium0–5L
1 Jun@ Austria0–1L
1 Apr@ Canada0–0D
29 Mar@ Haiti1–0W
0.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Netherlands – last 6

WDWLDW
20 Junvs Sweden5–1W
14 Junvs Japan2–2D
8 Junvs Uzbekistan2–1W
3 Junvs Algeria0–1L
31 Marvs Ecuador1–1D
27 Marvs Norway2–1W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Tunisia and Netherlands.

Tunisia vs Netherlands head-to-head page →

More World Cup predictions

FT Japan1 Sweden1 154%1.90X25%3.45220%3.95 2.2–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 81%@1.25 ✓
FT Paraguay0 Australia0 139%2.70X34%2.26227%3.90 1.3–1.0xG 1XParaguay or draw 73%@1.25 ✓
FT Türkiye3 USA2 122%3.55X20%3.95257%1.87 1.1–2.0xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.50 ✓
FT Norway1 France4 122%4.55X22%4.20256%1.64 1.4–2.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 82%@1.20 ✓
FT Senegal5 Iraq0 172%1.24X18%5.60210%12.00 2.5–0.9xG 1Senegal to win 72%@1.24 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tunisia vs Netherlands?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.

Who will win Tunisia vs Netherlands?

On our numbers Tunisia have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Netherlands 71%.

How many goals will there be in Tunisia vs Netherlands?

We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Netherlands?

Our predicted score is Tunisia 1–2 Netherlands, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.

When is Tunisia vs Netherlands?

Tunisia vs Netherlands (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arrowhead Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.