Japan 54%Draw 25%Sweden 20%Expected goals 2.19 – 1.31
81%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultJapan to win ✗54% · @1.90
Double chanceJapan or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Japan vs Sweden: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Friday 26 June: Japan v Sweden in the World Cup, played at AT&T Stadium.
Current form
Japan, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Tunisia, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sweden, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Netherlands, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Momentum favours Japan, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Sweden.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Japan 2.2 xG, Sweden 1.3 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 61% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Japan 54%, draw 25%, Sweden 20%.
Lower-risk option: Japan or draw (80%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Japan 2–1 Sweden. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Japan54%fair 1.84 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.45
Sweden20%fair 4.94 · @3.95
3.49Expected goals
2.19Japan xG
1.31Sweden xG
65%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
1–19%
2–07%
3–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Japan 2.2 – 1.3 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Japan to win✗
54%
1.84
1.90
Double chance
Japan or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
Japan (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Sweden +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.15
First team to score
Japan to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Japan ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Japan / FT Japan✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Japan – last 4
WDWW
21 Jun
@ Tunisia
4–0
W
14 Jun
@ Netherlands
2–2
D
31 May
vs Iceland
1–0
W
31 Mar
@ England
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sweden – last 6
LWDLWW
20 Jun
@ Netherlands
1–5
L
15 Jun
vs Tunisia
5–1
W
4 Jun
vs Greece
2–2
D
1 Jun
@ Norway
1–3
L
31 Mar
vs Poland
3–2
W
26 Mar
@ Ukraine
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan and Sweden.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Japan vs Sweden?
On our numbers Japan have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sweden 20%.
How many goals will there be in Japan vs Sweden?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Japan vs Sweden?
Our predicted score is Japan 2–1 Sweden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Japan vs Sweden?
Japan vs Sweden (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tunisia1
Netherlands3
Paraguay0
Australia0
Türkiye3
USA2
Norway1
France4
Senegal5
Iraq0