Value bet: Nashville SC to win @ 2.78 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNashville SC to win ✗39% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.62
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Philadelphia Union welcome Nashville SC to Subaru Park for a Major League Soccer fixture on Sunday 3 May (00:30 WAT). In the table, Philadelphia Union are 6th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; Nashville SC are 1st (leading the league) with 77. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Philadelphia Union, last 5: LDDLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Columbus Crew, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Nashville SC, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Tigres UANL, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Nashville SC, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Philadelphia Union.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Philadelphia Union 1.3 xG, Nashville SC 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Philadelphia Union 35%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 39%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Nashville SC to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Philadelphia Union 1–1 Nashville SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Philadelphia Union35%fair 2.85 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.40
Nashville SC39%fair 2.56 · @2.78
2.65Expected goals
1.26Philadelphia Union xG
1.39Nashville SC xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 1.3 – 1.4 Nashville SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nashville SC to win✗
39%
2.56
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.70
Draw no bet
Nashville SC (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Philadelphia Union +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Nashville SC to score first✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nashville SC / FT Nashville SC✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.62
–
Recent results
Philadelphia Union – last 6
LDDLDL
26 Apr
@ Columbus Crew
0–2
L
23 Apr
@ Toronto FC
3–3
D
19 Apr
vs DC United
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Charlotte
1–2
L
19 Mar
@ Club America
1–1
D
11 Mar
vs Club America
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nashville SC – last 6
LWWWWD
29 Apr
vs Tigres UANL
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Charlotte
4–2
W
19 Apr
@ Atlanta United FC
2–0
W
15 Apr
@ Club America
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Charlotte
2–1
W
8 Apr
vs Club America
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Nashville SC 39%.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 1–1 Nashville SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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