Philadelphia Union 59%Draw 21%New York Red Bulls 20%Expected goals 2.20 – 1.16
80%
Betarazi pick
Philadelphia Union or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultPhiladelphia Union to win ✓59% · @1.73
Double chancePhiladelphia Union or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 23 July the Major League Soccer brings Philadelphia Union against New York Red Bulls at Subaru Park. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Philadelphia Union are 6th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; New York Red Bulls are 10th (lower half) with 42.
Current form
Philadelphia Union, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 4–6 defeat to Inter Miami, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.
New York Red Bulls, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Sporting Kansas City, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours New York Red Bulls, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Philadelphia Union.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Philadelphia Union 2.2 xG, New York Red Bulls 1.2 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Philadelphia Union 59%, draw 21%, New York Red Bulls 20%.
Lower-risk option: Philadelphia Union or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.48.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Philadelphia Union or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Philadelphia Union 2–1 New York Red Bulls. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Philadelphia Union59%fair 1.70 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @4.10
New York Red Bulls20%fair 5.01 · @4.00
3.36Expected goals
2.20Philadelphia Union xG
1.16New York Red Bulls xG
64%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 2.2 – 1.2 New York Red Bulls expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Philadelphia Union to win✓
59%
1.70
1.73
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.48
Draw no bet
Philadelphia Union (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.34
–
Asian handicap
Philadelphia Union -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
First team to score
Philadelphia Union to score first
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Philadelphia Union ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Philadelphia Union / FT Philadelphia Union✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Philadelphia Union – last 6
LDLLDL
25 May
@ Inter Miami
4–6
L
17 May
vs Columbus Crew
1–1
D
14 May
@ Orlando City SC
3–4
L
10 May
@ New England Revolution
1–2
L
3 May
vs Nashville SC
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Columbus Crew
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
New York Red Bulls – last 6
WDWLLL
24 May
@ Sporting Kansas City
2–1
W
17 May
vs New York City FC
1–1
D
14 May
vs Columbus Crew
3–2
W
3 May
vs FC Dallas
0–2
L
30 Apr
vs New York City FC
1–3
L
26 Apr
@ FC Cincinnati
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philadelphia Union and New York Red Bulls.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
Our pick is Philadelphia Union or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and New York Red Bulls 20%.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 2–1 New York Red Bulls, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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