Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.99 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓54% · @1.99
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Botafogo vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Flamengo travel to face Botafogo on Sunday 15 March in the Serie A, with Estádio Nilton Santos the venue – the ball rolls at 00:30 WAT. In the table, Botafogo are 11th, lower half, on 42 points after 34 matches; Flamengo are 1st (leading the league) with 76. There are 34 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Botafogo, last 5: LDDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Barcelona SC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Flamengo, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Cruzeiro, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Flamengo, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Botafogo.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended Botafogo 1–2 Flamengo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Botafogo 1.0 xG, Flamengo 1.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Botafogo 22%, draw 24%, Flamengo 54%.
Lower-risk option: Flamengo or draw (78%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Flamengo to win @1.99 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Flamengo or draw (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Botafogo 0–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Botafogo22%fair 4.54 · @3.70
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.35
Flamengo54%fair 1.86 · @1.99
2.83Expected goals
0.98Botafogo xG
1.85Flamengo xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–36%
1–36%
From our goals model: Botafogo 1.0 – 1.8 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Botafogo
Flamengo
Attack vs Serie A average
-23%
+54%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.83
1.87
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Botafogo have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 54%.
How many goals will there be in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Botafogo 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Botafogo vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
