Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Thursday 2 April: Bahia v Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A, played at Arena Fonte Nova. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over RB Bragantino, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Botafogo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Bahia, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.7 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 53%, draw 24%, Atletico Paranaense 23%.
Lower-risk option: Bahia or draw (77%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia53%fair 1.87 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.50
Atletico Paranaense23%fair 4.41 · @4.35
2.81Expected goals
1.72Bahia xG
1.09Atletico Paranaense xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.7 – 1.1 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+15%
Our expected goals here
1.91
1.30
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
53%
1.87
1.80
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.85
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.09
First team to score
Bahia to score first✓
58%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✓
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 5
WWDWL
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
WWLDLL
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Bahia have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico Paranaense 23%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
