Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 2 April the Serie A brings Chapecoense-sc against Atletico-MG at Arena Condá. Kick-off: 23:00 WAT. In the table, Chapecoense-sc are 20th, in the drop zone, on 21 points after 33 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50. There are 29 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Chapecoense-sc, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over São Bernardo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico-MG, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sao Paulo, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chapecoense-sc 1.1 xG, Atletico-MG 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chapecoense-sc 30%, draw 26%, Atletico-MG 44%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chapecoense-sc30%fair 3.33 · @2.92
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.25
Atletico-MG44%fair 2.25 · @2.38
2.58Expected goals
1.06Chapecoense-sc xG
1.52Atletico-MG xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.1 – 1.5 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+53%
-20%
Our expected goals here
0.96
1.69
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
44%
2.25
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Chapecoense-sc +1 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✓
29%
3.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.76
–
Recent results
Chapecoense-sc – last 5
WDDLW
26 Mar
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
20 Mar
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs Gremio
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 5
WWLDW
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Gremio
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Itabirito
7–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico-MG 44%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
