Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.28
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win66% · @1.50
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.21
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Paranaense welcome Chapecoense-sc to Arena da Baixada for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 12 April (15:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Chapecoense-sc are 20th (in the drop zone) with 21. There are 33 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Bahia, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Chapecoense-sc, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Avai, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 2.2 xG, Chapecoense-sc 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 66%, draw 20%, Chapecoense-sc 14%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-sc. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense66%fair 1.52 · @1.50
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @4.10
Chapecoense-sc14%fair 7.16 · @6.25
3.14Expected goals
2.23Atletico Paranaense xG
0.91Chapecoense-sc xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 2.2 – 0.9 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
Attack vs Serie A average
+14%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
+53%
Our expected goals here
2.66
1.03
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win
66%
1.52
1.50
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)
82%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense -0.5 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.52
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.12
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Atletico Paranaense ahead at half-time
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWWLDL
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
WDLWDD
8 Apr
vs Avai
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
0–4
L
26 Mar
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
20 Mar
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs Gremio
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chapecoense-sc 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
