Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.46 – our chance 48% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win48% · @2.46
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 10.80
Corinthians vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Corinthians welcome Palmeiras to Neo Quimica Arena for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 12 April (22:30 WAT). In the table, Corinthians are 17th, lower half, on 37 points after 34 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 36 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: WLLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Platense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Palmeiras, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Junior, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 0.9 xG, Palmeiras 1.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 26%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 48%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Palmeiras to win @2.46 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 0–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians26%fair 3.79 · @2.90
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.15
Palmeiras48%fair 2.10 · @2.46
2.42Expected goals
0.90Corinthians xG
1.53Palmeiras xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–112%
0–210%
1–29%
0–09%
1–08%
From our goals model: Corinthians 0.9 – 1.5 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Corinthians
Palmeiras
Attack vs Serie A average
-15%
+41%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-42%
Our expected goals here
0.75
1.66
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win
48%
2.10
2.46 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
1.90
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)
64%
1.55
–
Asian handicap
Corinthians +1 (Asian handicap)
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
10.80
–
Recent results
Corinthians – last 6
WLLDDD
10 Apr
@ Platense
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Internacional
0–1
L
2 Apr
@ Fluminense
1–3
L
23 Mar
vs Flamengo
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Santos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
DWWWWL
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Bahia
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Palmeiras.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Palmeiras 48%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Corinthians vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
