Santos vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico-MG travel to face Santos on Sunday 12 April in the Serie A, with Estádio Urbano Caldeira the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Santos are 9th, upper half, on 47 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Santos, last 5: LWLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Deportivo Cuenca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Atletico-MG, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Puerto Cabello, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santos 1.4 xG, Atletico-MG 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santos 42%, draw 27%, Atletico-MG 31%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santos 1–1 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santos42%fair 2.39 · @2.25
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @3.20
Atletico-MG31%fair 3.20 · @3.20
2.52Expected goals
1.40Santos xG
1.12Atletico-MG xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Santos 1.4 – 1.1 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santos
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
+11%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.03
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✓
42%
2.39
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.83
Draw no bet
Santos (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Santos to score first✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.33
–
Recent results
Santos – last 6
LWLDDW
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
11 Mar
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
LWWWLD
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Gremio
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Atletico-MG.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Santos vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Santos have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Atletico-MG 31%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Atletico-MG?
Santos vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
