Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win61% · @1.63
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw85% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.38
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vitoria travel to face Atletico Paranaense on Sunday 26 April in the Serie A, with Arena da Baixada the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Vitoria are 15th (lower half) with 38. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atletico Goianiense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Vitoria, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Flamengo, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.8 xG, Vitoria 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 61%, draw 24%, Vitoria 15%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Paranaense or draw (85%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vitoria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense61%fair 1.64 · @1.63
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.50
Vitoria15%fair 6.59 · @5.80
2.61Expected goals
1.81Atletico Paranaense xG
0.80Vitoria xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.8 – 0.8 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
Attack vs Serie A average
+14%
-32%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
+16%
Our expected goals here
2.02
0.90
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win
61%
1.64
1.63
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw
85%
1.18
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.83
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense -0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Atletico Paranaense ahead at half-time
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DLWWLD
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
LDWWDL
23 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Piauí
3–1
W
8 Apr
vs Juazeirense
4–1
W
5 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Vitoria.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vitoria 15%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
