Corinthians 43%Draw 26%Vasco DA Gama 31%Expected goals 1.32 – 1.13
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.60 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCorinthians to win43% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.76
Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Corinthians v Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A, played at Neo Quimica Arena. In the table, Corinthians are 17th, lower half, on 37 points after 34 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Barra, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WLDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Paysandu, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.3 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 43%, draw 26%, Vasco DA Gama 31%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Vasco DA Gama to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians43%fair 2.31 · @2.04
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.30
Vasco DA Gama31%fair 3.25 · @3.60
2.45Expected goals
1.32Corinthians xG
1.13Vasco DA Gama xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.3 – 1.1 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
-15%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.28
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win
43%
2.31
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Corinthians (draw no bet)
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Vasco DA Gama +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Corinthians to score first
49%
2.03
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.76
–
Recent results
Corinthians – last 6
WDWWLL
22 Apr
@ Barra
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Platense
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Internacional
0–1
L
2 Apr
@ Fluminense
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WLDLDW
22 Apr
@ Paysandu
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Barracas Central
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Botafogo
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Vasco DA Gama 31%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
