Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultGremio to win52% · @1.90
Double chanceGremio or draw79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.84
Gremio vs Coritiba: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Gremio v Coritiba in the Serie A. In the table, Gremio are 18th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 34 matches; Coritiba are 12th (lower half) with 42.
Current form
Gremio, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Confiança, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Coritiba, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Santos, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 1.5 xG, Coritiba 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 52%, draw 27%, Coritiba 21%.
Lower-risk option: Gremio or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Gremio or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 1–0 Coritiba. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio52%fair 1.92 · @1.90
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.25
Coritiba21%fair 4.69 · @4.20
2.41Expected goals
1.51Gremio xG
0.90Coritiba xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.5 – 0.9 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gremio
Coritiba
Attack vs Serie A average
-16%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
+18%
Our expected goals here
1.51
0.94
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gremio to win
52%
1.92
1.90
Double chance
Gremio or draw
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.94
1.95
Draw no bet
Gremio (draw no bet)
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Coritiba +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Gremio to score first
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gremio / FT Gremio
31%
3.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
Gremio – last 6
WLWDLD
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Remo
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 6
DDDWWL
22 Apr
@ Santos
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Fluminense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Coritiba.
Our pick is Gremio or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Gremio have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Coritiba 21%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Coritiba?
Gremio vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
