Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗56% · @1.81
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Atletico Paranaense v Gremio in the Serie A, played at Arena da Baixada. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atletico Goianiense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Gremio, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Palestino, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.7 xG, Gremio 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 56%, draw 24%, Gremio 20%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Paranaense or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Paranaense or draw (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense56%fair 1.79 · @1.81
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.45
Gremio20%fair 5.06 · @4.35
2.68Expected goals
1.71Atletico Paranaense xG
0.97Gremio xG
51%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.7 – 1.0 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
+14%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.78
1.10
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✗
56%
1.79
1.81
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +1 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.09
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first✗
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✗
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DLWWLD
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
DWLWDL
30 Apr
@ Palestino
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our pick is Atletico Paranaense or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gremio 20%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
