Sao Paulo 45%Draw 27%Bahia 28%Expected goals 1.31 – 1.05
77%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.25
8/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Bahia to win @ 3.80 – our chance 28% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win45% · @1.99
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.78
Sao Paulo vs Bahia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Serie A brings Sao Paulo against Bahia at Estadio Do MorumBIS. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Bahia are 6th (upper half) with 53.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Millonarios, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Bahia, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Remo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sao Paulo, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Bahia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.3 xG, Bahia 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 45%, draw 27%, Bahia 28%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Bahia to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 28%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–1 Bahia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo45%fair 2.23 · @1.99
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @3.30
Bahia28%fair 3.56 · @3.80
2.35Expected goals
1.31Sao Paulo xG
1.05Bahia xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.0 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sao Paulo
Bahia
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
+0%
Our expected goals here
1.19
1.07
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win
45%
2.23
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.37
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.98
1.85
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)
62%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Bahia +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.77
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.08
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.78
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
DWWWWD
29 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Internacional
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Bahia – last 6
LLLWWW
22 Apr
vs Remo
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Bahia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Bahia 28%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Sao Paulo vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
