Flamengo 67%Draw 20%Vasco DA Gama 14%Expected goals 2.19 – 0.84
78%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win67% · @1.53
Double chanceFlamengo or draw86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–08% · fair 11.80
Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Flamengo welcome Vasco DA Gama for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 3 May (20:00 WAT). In the table, Flamengo are 1st, leading the league, on 76 points after 34 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41. There are 35 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Flamengo, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estudiantes L.P., away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Olimpia, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Flamengo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Vasco DA Gama.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Flamengo 2.2 xG, Vasco DA Gama 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 56% for three or more goals, 48% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Flamengo 67%, draw 20%, Vasco DA Gama 14%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Flamengo 2–0 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Flamengo67%fair 1.50 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 5.13 · @4.10
Vasco DA Gama14%fair 7.25 · @5.90
3.03Expected goals
2.19Flamengo xG
0.84Vasco DA Gama xG
48%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.2 – 0.8 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Flamengo
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
+54%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
+6%
Our expected goals here
2.49
0.88
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win
67%
1.50
1.53
Double chance
Flamengo or draw
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.92
1.85
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Flamengo -0.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.13
First team to score
Flamengo to score first
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0
8%
11.80
–
Recent results
Flamengo – last 6
DWWWWL
30 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Bahia
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WWLDLD
30 Apr
vs Olimpia
3–0
W
22 Apr
@ Paysandu
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs A. Italiano
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Barracas Central
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Botafogo
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vasco DA Gama 14%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
