Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCruzeiro to win ✗55% · @1.84
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✗80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.39
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Serie A brings Cruzeiro against Atletico-MG at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Kick-off: 01:00 WAT. In the table, Cruzeiro are 3rd, among the top four, on 60 points after 34 matches; Atletico-MG are 7th (upper half) with 50.
Current form
Cruzeiro, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Boca Juniors, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Atletico-MG, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cienciano, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Cruzeiro, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Atletico-MG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.7 xG, Atletico-MG 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 55%, draw 25%, Atletico-MG 20%.
Lower-risk option: Cruzeiro or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cruzeiro or draw (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–0 Atletico-MG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruzeiro55%fair 1.82 · @1.84
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.40
Atletico-MG20%fair 4.94 · @4.33
2.64Expected goals
1.66Cruzeiro xG
0.98Atletico-MG xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.7 – 1.0 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
Attack vs Serie A average
+35%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-20%
Our expected goals here
1.66
1.09
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✗
55%
1.82
1.84
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Cruzeiro (draw no bet)✗
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Atletico-MG +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Cruzeiro to score first✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✗
32%
3.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Cruzeiro – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Gremio
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs Vitoria
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
LWWLLW
30 Apr
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Ceara
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 20%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–0 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
