Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultBahia to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Bahia vs Mirassol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:30 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Bahia v Mirassol in the Serie A, played at Arena Fonte Nova. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Mirassol are 14th (lower half) with 40. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Palmeiras, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Mirassol, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with RB Bragantino, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Bahia, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Mirassol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.8 xG, Mirassol 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 61%, draw 22%, Mirassol 17%.
Lower-risk option: Bahia or draw (83%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bahia to win (61%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.64, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–0 Mirassol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia61%fair 1.64 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.70
Mirassol17%fair 5.80 · @4.33
2.69Expected goals
1.84Bahia xG
0.85Mirassol xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.8 – 0.8 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.67
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Bahia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Bahia to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Bahia ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✓
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
LLWWWW
9 Oct
@ Palmeiras
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
15 Sep
vs Remo
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ RB Bragantino
3–2
W
30 Aug
vs Internacional
3–2
W
23 Aug
@ Vitoria
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mirassol – last 6
DWDWLD
7 Oct
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Botafogo
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Vitoria
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Coritiba
2–1
W
2 Sep
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Palmeiras
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Mirassol.
Our pick is Bahia to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Bahia vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Bahia have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mirassol 17%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Mirassol?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Mirassol?
Bahia vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
