Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓64% · @1.62
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.37
Palmeiras vs Corinthians: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Palmeiras welcome Corinthians to Nubank Parque for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 11 October (21:30 WAT). In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Corinthians are 17th (lower half) with 37. There are 36 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Bahia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Corinthians, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Internacional, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.2 for Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 1.7 xG, Corinthians 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 64%, draw 21%, Corinthians 15%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.05.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Palmeiras to win (64%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.57, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 1–0 Corinthians. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras64%fair 1.57 · @1.62
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.50
Corinthians15%fair 6.53 · @5.00
2.29Expected goals
1.66Palmeiras xG
0.63Corinthians xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.7 – 0.6 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
64%
1.57
1.62
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Palmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.37
–
Recent results
Palmeiras – last 6
WDLWWD
9 Oct
vs Bahia
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Gremio
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ LDU de Quito
2–3
L
12 Sep
vs Sao Paulo
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs LDU de Quito
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Botafogo
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Corinthians – last 6
LLLLDL
7 Oct
@ Internacional
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Fluminense
1–3
L
17 Sep
vs Estudiantes L.P.
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Flamengo
1–2
L
10 Sep
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Corinthians.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Corinthians 15%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Nubank Parque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
