Flamengo vs Fluminense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Flamengo welcome Fluminense to Estádio do Maracanã for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 11 October (21:30 WAT). In the table, Flamengo are 1st, leading the league, on 76 points after 34 matches; Fluminense are 4th (among the top four) with 57. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Flamengo, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Santos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Fluminense, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Coritiba, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Flamengo 2.1 xG, Fluminense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Flamengo 68%, draw 23%, Fluminense 9%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Flamengo to win (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Flamengo 2–0 Fluminense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Flamengo68%fair 1.46 · @1.44
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @4.20
Fluminense9%fair 10.96 · @6.50
2.86Expected goals
2.14Flamengo xG
0.72Fluminense xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
2–19%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.1 – 0.7 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
68%
1.46
1.44
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.80
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Flamengo -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.62
–
Recent results
Flamengo – last 6
DWDWWW
8 Oct
@ Santos
2–2
D
20 Sep
vs RB Bragantino
2–1
W
18 Sep
vs Independiente del Valle
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Corinthians
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Independiente del Valle
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Remo
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
WWLLWW
9 Oct
vs Coritiba
4–0
W
20 Sep
@ Corinthians
3–1
W
15 Sep
@ Platense
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Atletico-MG
1–3
L
8 Sep
vs Platense
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Flamengo to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fluminense 9%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
