Sao Paulo 63%Draw 21%Vitoria 15%Expected goals 1.74 – 0.69
63%
Betarazi pick
Sao Paulo to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceSao Paulo or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.87
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:00 WAT, Sunday 11 October: Sao Paulo v Vitoria in the Serie A, played at Morumbi. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Vitoria are 15th (lower half) with 38.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cruzeiro, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Vitoria, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Chapecoense-sc, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vitoria, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Sao Paulo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.7 xG, Vitoria 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 63%, draw 21%, Vitoria 15%.
Lower-risk option: Sao Paulo or draw (85%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sao Paulo to win (63%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.30
Vitoria15%fair 6.58 · @4.80
2.43Expected goals
1.74Sao Paulo xG
0.69Vitoria xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.7 – 0.7 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Sao Paulo or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.95
Draw no bet
Sao Paulo (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Sao Paulo to score first
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Sao Paulo ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.87
–
Recent results
Sao Paulo – last 6
LLWDLL
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
9 Sep
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
WLDWLL
8 Oct
vs Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
20 Sep
vs Cruzeiro
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
8 Sep
vs Gremio
1–0
W
3 Sep
vs Vasco DA Gama
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Atletico-MG
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Vitoria.
Our pick is Sao Paulo to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vitoria 15%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
