Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonterrey to win ✓54% · @1.54
Double chanceMonterrey or draw ✓77% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Monterrey vs Leon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Sunday 15 February: Monterrey v Leon in the Liga MX, played at Estadio BBVA.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monterrey 1.8 xG, Leon 1.3 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monterrey 54%, draw 23%, Leon 23%.
Lower-risk option: Monterrey or draw (77%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monterrey 1–1 Leon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monterrey54%fair 1.85 · @1.54
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @4.20
Leon23%fair 4.41 · @5.60
3.07Expected goals
1.78Monterrey xG
1.29Leon xG
62%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
2–07%
1–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.8 – 1.3 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monterrey
Leon
Attack vs Liga MX average
+5%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-3%
Our expected goals here
1.64
1.51
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey to win✓
54%
1.85
1.54
Double chance
Monterrey or draw✓
77%
1.29
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.67
Draw no bet
Monterrey (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Leon +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.20
First team to score
Monterrey to score first✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey / FT Monterrey✓
30%
3.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.53
–
Recent results
Monterrey
No recent results on record.
Leon
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Leon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monterrey vs Leon?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leon 23%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Leon?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Leon?
Monterrey vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
