Value bet: Atlas to win @ 4.00 – our chance 30% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTigres UANL to win ✗45% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.65
Atlas vs Tigres UANL: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
02:00 WAT, Thursday 23 April: Atlas v Tigres UANL in the Liga MX, played at Estadio Jalisco. In the table, Atlas are 5th, upper half, on 27 points after 16 matches; Tigres UANL are 15th (lower half) with 15. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atlas, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Santos Laguna, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Tigres UANL, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Necaxa, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlas 1.3 xG, Tigres UANL 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlas 30%, draw 25%, Tigres UANL 45%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Atlas to win @4.00 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlas 1–1 Tigres UANL. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlas30%fair 3.35 · @4.00
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.40
Tigres UANL45%fair 2.22 · @1.90
2.78Expected goals
1.35Atlas xG
1.44Tigres UANL xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–26%
From our goals model: Atlas 1.3 – 1.4 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atlas
Tigres UANL
Attack vs Liga MX average
+4%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.64
1.33
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tigres UANL to win✗
45%
2.22
1.90
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.85
Draw no bet
Tigres UANL (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Atlas +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.08
First team to score
Tigres UANL to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tigres UANL / FT Tigres UANL✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.65
–
Recent results
Atlas – last 6
WDLDDL
20 Apr
@ Santos Laguna
1–0
W
12 Apr
vs Monterrey
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Leon
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Toluca
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tigres UANL – last 6
DLWWLL
19 Apr
@ Necaxa
1–1
D
16 Apr
@ Seattle Sounders
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Guadalajara Chivas
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Seattle Sounders
2–0
W
4 Apr
@ Club Tijuana
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ FC Juarez
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlas and Tigres UANL.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Atlas have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tigres UANL 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Atlas 1–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Tigres UANL?
Atlas vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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