Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗61% · @1.41
Double chanceToluca or draw ✗81% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Mazatlán vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mazatlán welcome Toluca to Estadio de Mazatlan for a Liga MX fixture on Thursday 23 April (02:00 WAT).
Current form
Mazatlán, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Club Queretaro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Toluca, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Club America, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mazatlán 1.2 xG, Toluca 2.1 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mazatlán 19%, draw 20%, Toluca 61%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mazatlán 1–2 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mazatlán19%fair 5.30 · @6.25
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @5.00
Toluca61%fair 1.64 · @1.41
3.33Expected goals
1.25Mazatlán xG
2.08Toluca xG
60%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–17%
1–37%
2–26%
From our goals model: Mazatlán 1.2 – 2.1 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mazatlán
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+3%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.53
2.09
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
61%
1.64
1.41
Double chance
Toluca or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.60
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✗
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Mazatlán +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.13
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.77
1.70
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.30
First team to score
Toluca to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Mazatlán – last 6
DLDLWL
18 Apr
vs Club Queretaro
1–1
D
4 Apr
@ Necaxa
1–2
L
21 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Club America
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Leon
4–2
W
4 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–4
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
LWDWLD
19 Apr
@ Club America
1–2
L
16 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
3–0
W
13 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mazatlán and Toluca.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mazatlán vs Toluca?
On our numbers Mazatlán have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Toluca 61%.
How many goals will there be in Mazatlán vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mazatlán vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Mazatlán 1–2 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Mazatlán vs Toluca?
Mazatlán vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mazatlan.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
