Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗60% · @1.58
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Necaxa welcome Guadalajara Chivas to Estadio Victoria for a Liga MX fixture on Thursday 23 April (04:10 WAT). In the table, Necaxa are 17th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd (among the top four) with 30. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Necaxa, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tigres UANL, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Puebla, at home. Scoring is no problem – 3.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Guadalajara Chivas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Necaxa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Necaxa 1.0 xG, Guadalajara Chivas 1.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Necaxa 17%, draw 23%, Guadalajara Chivas 60%.
Lower-risk option: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (83%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Necaxa 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Necaxa17%fair 5.98 · @5.00
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @4.20
Guadalajara Chivas60%fair 1.66 · @1.58
2.85Expected goals
0.96Necaxa xG
1.90Guadalajara Chivas xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Necaxa 1.0 – 1.9 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack vs Liga MX average
-26%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-25%
Our expected goals here
0.89
1.63
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win✗
60%
1.66
1.58
Double chance
Guadalajara Chivas or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.62
Draw no bet
Guadalajara Chivas (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Necaxa +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.20
First team to score
Guadalajara Chivas to score first✗
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Guadalajara Chivas ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Necaxa – last 6
DLWWDL
19 Apr
vs Tigres UANL
1–1
D
12 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
1–3
L
4 Apr
vs Mazatlán
2–1
W
21 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
3–0
W
14 Mar
@ Puebla
0–0
D
7 Mar
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 6
WLDWWW
19 Apr
vs Puebla
5–0
W
12 Apr
@ Tigres UANL
1–4
L
6 Apr
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Monterrey
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Leon
5–0
W
15 Mar
vs Santos Laguna
3–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guadalajara Chivas 60%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán4