Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✓59% · @1.59
Double chanceToluca or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.14
Toluca vs Leon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leon travel to face Toluca on Sunday 26 April in the Liga MX, with Estadio Nemesio Diez the venue – the ball rolls at 02:05 WAT.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Mazatlán, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Leon, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Club America, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Leon, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Toluca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 2.0 xG, Leon 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 59%, draw 22%, Leon 19%.
Lower-risk option: Toluca or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 2–1 Leon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca59%fair 1.70 · @1.59
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @4.35
Leon19%fair 5.15 · @4.75
3.16Expected goals
2.01Toluca xG
1.15Leon xG
65%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.0 – 1.1 Leon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Toluca
Leon
Attack vs Liga MX average
+30%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-3%
Our expected goals here
2.03
1.26
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
59%
1.70
1.59
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.55
1.55
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Leon +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
First team to score
Toluca to score first
61%
1.64
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.14
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 6
LLWDWL
23 Apr
@ Mazatlán
3–4
L
19 Apr
@ Club America
1–2
L
16 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
3–0
W
13 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leon – last 6
LWWWWL
22 Apr
vs Club America
2–3
L
19 Apr
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
11 Apr
@ Puebla
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Atlas
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Guadalajara Chivas
0–5
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Leon.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Toluca vs Leon?
On our numbers Toluca have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leon 19%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Leon?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Leon?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Leon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Leon?
Toluca vs Leon (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mazatlán1