St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
St Patrick's Athl. welcome Derry City to Richmond Park for a Premier Division fixture on Monday 16 March (20:45 WAT). In the table, St Patrick's Athl. are 3rd, among the top four, on 60 points after 36 matches; Derry City are 5th (upper half) with 48. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
St Patrick's Athl., last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Drogheda United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.4 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Derry City, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Shelbourne, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
Momentum favours St Patrick's Athl., collecting 2.4 points per game to 0.8 for Derry City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give St Patrick's Athl. 1.4 xG, Derry City 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – St Patrick's Athl. 45%, draw 27%, Derry City 28%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.90.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
St Patrick's Athl.45%fair 2.24 · @2.20
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @3.15
Derry City28%fair 3.55 · @3.35
2.51Expected goals
1.44St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.07Derry City xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: St Patrick's Athl. 1.4 – 1.1 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
St Patrick's Athl. to win✗
45%
2.24
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.90
Draw no bet
St Patrick's Athl. (draw no bet)
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Derry City +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
St Patrick's Athl. to score first✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT St Patrick's Athl. / FT St Patrick's Athl.✗
27%
3.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
St Patrick's Athl. – last 5
WWWWL
13 Mar
vs Drogheda United
4–1
W
6 Mar
@ Shelbourne
3–2
W
2 Mar
vs Galway United
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Dundalk
4–0
W
20 Feb
@ Shamrock Rovers
0–2
L
2.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Derry City – last 5
LLWLD
13 Mar
vs Shelbourne
1–2
L
6 Mar
@ Shamrock Rovers
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Waterford
4–2
W
20 Feb
vs Bohemians
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Dundalk
2–2
D
1.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City.
What is the prediction for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
On our numbers St Patrick's Athl. have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Derry City 28%.
How many goals will there be in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Richmond Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
