Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 2.88 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓41% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.82
Orange County SC vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Sunday 5 April: Orange County SC v New Mexico United in the USL Championship, played at Championship Soccer Stadium. In the table, Orange County SC are 9th, lower half, on 39 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Orange County SC, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Phoenix Rising, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
New Mexico United, last 4: LLWL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to El Paso Locomotive, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Orange County SC, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for New Mexico United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Orange County SC 1.2 xG, New Mexico United 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Orange County SC 35%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 41%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: New Mexico United to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Orange County SC 1–1 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Orange County SC35%fair 2.87 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.35
New Mexico United41%fair 2.41 · @2.88
2.70Expected goals
1.16Orange County SC xG
1.54New Mexico United xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 1.2 – 1.5 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Orange County SC
New Mexico United
Attack vs USL Championship average
-4%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
+30%
-22%
Our expected goals here
1.13
1.96
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✓
41%
2.41
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.62
Draw no bet
New Mexico United (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Orange County SC +1 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
New Mexico United to score first✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✓
27%
3.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.82
–
Recent results
Orange County SC – last 6
DWWWDD
2 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Colorado Springs
1–0
W
19 Mar
vs Laguna United
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Las Vegas Lights
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 4
LLWL
2 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Cruizers
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and New Mexico United 41%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs New Mexico United?
Orange County SC vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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