Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 5 April the USL Championship brings Sporting JAX against Tampa Bay Rowdies at Hodges Stadium. Kick-off: 00:30 WAT. In the table, Sporting JAX are 13th, in the drop zone, on 14 points after 30 matches; Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st (leading the league) with 61. There are 47 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sporting JAX, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Pittsburgh Riverhounds, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 3.3 conceded per game.
Tampa Bay Rowdies, last 4: WWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Loudoun United, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tampa Bay Rowdies, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.0 for Sporting JAX.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sporting JAX 1.0 xG, Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.3 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting JAX 18%, draw 21%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 61%.
Lower-risk option: Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting JAX 1–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sporting JAX18%fair 5.63 · @4.00
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.60
Tampa Bay Rowdies61%fair 1.64 · @1.70
3.32Expected goals
1.03Sporting JAX xG
2.29Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
62%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
0–210%
1–19%
0–18%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Sporting JAX 1.0 – 2.3 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sporting JAX
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Attack vs USL Championship average
-23%
+12%
Goals conceded vs average
+74%
-25%
Our expected goals here
0.86
2.37
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Double chance
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.62
Draw no bet
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Tampa Bay Rowdies -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Tampa Bay Rowdies to score first✓
66%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tampa Bay Rowdies / FT Tampa Bay Rowdies✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Sporting JAX – last 3
LLL
29 Mar
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2–3
L
26 Mar
vs Miami FC
2–4
L
8 Mar
vs Hartford Athletic
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
3.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 4
WWWW
29 Mar
vs Loudoun United
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Birmingham Legion
1–0
W
19 Feb
vs Naples
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting JAX and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What is the prediction for Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers Sporting JAX have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 61%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is Sporting JAX 1–2 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Sporting JAX vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Hodges Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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