Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Phoenix Rising travel to face Sacramento Republic on Sunday 5 April in the USL Championship, with Heart Health Park the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, Sacramento Republic are 2nd, among the top four, on 51 points after 30 matches; Phoenix Rising are 8th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
Sacramento Republic, last 5: WLDDD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Valley 559 FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Phoenix Rising, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Orange County SC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sacramento Republic 1.7 xG, Phoenix Rising 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sacramento Republic 58%, draw 23%, Phoenix Rising 18%.
Lower-risk option: Sacramento Republic or draw (82%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Phoenix Rising. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sacramento Republic58%fair 1.71 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.45
Phoenix Rising18%fair 5.42 · @4.50
2.61Expected goals
1.73Sacramento Republic xG
0.89Phoenix Rising xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.7 – 0.9 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising
Attack vs USL Championship average
+11%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-27%
+14%
Our expected goals here
1.89
1.02
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✓
58%
1.71
1.70
Double chance
Sacramento Republic or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.83
Draw no bet
Sacramento Republic (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Phoenix Rising +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Sacramento Republic to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✓
35%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
Sacramento Republic – last 6
WLDDDW
1 Apr
@ Valley 559 FC
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs El Farolito
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Lexington
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs FC Tulsa
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Phoenix Rising – last 6
DDDWDL
2 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
18 Mar
vs San Ramon
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ San Antonio
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Phoenix Rising 18%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Indy Eleven1
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1
Sporting JAX0
Tampa Bay Rowdies1