Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:00 WAT, Sunday 12 April: Indy Eleven v Monterey Bay in the USL Championship, played at Michael A. Carroll Stadium. In the table, Indy Eleven are 9th, lower half, on 34 points after 30 matches; Monterey Bay are 12th (in the drop zone) with 24.
Current form
Indy Eleven, last 4: DLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Pittsburgh Riverhounds, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Monterey Bay, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with San Antonio, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Indy Eleven, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.4 for Monterey Bay.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Indy Eleven 1.4 xG, Monterey Bay 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Indy Eleven 48%, draw 26%, Monterey Bay 26%.
Lower-risk option: Indy Eleven or draw (74%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Indy Eleven 1–0 Monterey Bay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Indy Eleven48%fair 2.09 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.25
Monterey Bay26%fair 3.85 · @3.50
2.36Expected goals
1.36Indy Eleven xG
1.00Monterey Bay xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–09%
0–19%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 1.4 – 1.0 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Indy Eleven
Monterey Bay
Attack vs USL Championship average
-20%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
+13%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.11
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Indy Eleven to win✓
48%
2.09
1.95
Double chance
Indy Eleven or draw✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.67
Draw no bet
Indy Eleven (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Monterey Bay +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Indy Eleven to score first✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Indy Eleven / FT Indy Eleven✓
26%
3.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.43
–
Recent results
Indy Eleven – last 4
DLWW
5 Apr
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Detroit City
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Des Moines Menace
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 5
DLDLL
5 Apr
vs San Antonio
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Las Vegas Lights
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indy Eleven and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Monterey Bay 26%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 1–0 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay?
Indy Eleven vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
El Paso Locomotive4
Lexington1
Oakland Roots2
FC Tulsa0
Orange County SC1
San Antonio0
Phoenix Rising3
New Mexico United0
Las Vegas Lights1
Sacramento Republic1