Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 2.80 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✗39% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
New Mexico United travel to face Phoenix Rising on Sunday 12 April in the USL Championship, with Wild Horse Pass Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 03:00 WAT. In the table, Phoenix Rising are 8th, lower half, on 40 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Phoenix Rising, last 5: LDDDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sacramento Republic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
New Mexico United, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Orange County SC, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Phoenix Rising 1.3 xG, New Mexico United 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Phoenix Rising 37%, draw 24%, New Mexico United 39%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: New Mexico United to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Phoenix Rising 1–1 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Phoenix Rising37%fair 2.72 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.40
New Mexico United39%fair 2.57 · @2.80
2.82Expected goals
1.33Phoenix Rising xG
1.49New Mexico United xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.3 – 1.5 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Phoenix Rising
New Mexico United
Attack vs USL Championship average
+15%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-22%
Our expected goals here
1.34
1.71
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✗
39%
2.57
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.60
Draw no bet
New Mexico United (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Phoenix Rising +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
First team to score
New Mexico United to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Phoenix Rising – last 6
LDDDWD
5 Apr
@ Sacramento Republic
0–2
L
2 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
18 Mar
vs San Ramon
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 5
WLLWL
5 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Cruizers
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Oakland Roots
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Phoenix Rising and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and New Mexico United 39%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Phoenix Rising 1–1 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United?
Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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