Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Indy Eleven welcome Sporting JAX to Michael A. Carroll Stadium for a USL Championship fixture on Sunday 10 May (00:00 WAT). In the table, Indy Eleven are 9th, lower half, on 34 points after 30 matches; Sporting JAX are 13th (in the drop zone) with 14. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Indy Eleven, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Tampa Bay Rowdies, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Sporting JAX, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Charleston Battery, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Indy Eleven, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.0 for Sporting JAX.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Indy Eleven 2.0 xG, Sporting JAX 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Indy Eleven 62%, draw 22%, Sporting JAX 16%.
Lower-risk option: Indy Eleven or draw (84%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Indy Eleven 2–0 Sporting JAX. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Indy Eleven62%fair 1.62 · @1.64
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.75
Sporting JAX16%fair 6.23 · @4.50
2.93Expected goals
2.01Indy Eleven xG
0.93Sporting JAX xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 2.0 – 0.9 Sporting JAX expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Indy Eleven
Sporting JAX
Attack vs USL Championship average
-20%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
+74%
Our expected goals here
2.11
0.97
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Indy Eleven to win✓
62%
1.62
1.64
Double chance
Indy Eleven or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.67
Draw no bet
Indy Eleven (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Indy Eleven -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Indy Eleven to score first✗
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Indy Eleven ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Indy Eleven / FT Indy Eleven✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Indy Eleven – last 6
LLWDLW
3 May
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
12 Apr
vs Monterey Bay
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Detroit City
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sporting JAX – last 6
LLLLLL
3 May
@ Charleston Battery
0–4
L
26 Apr
vs Miami FC
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
2–3
L
26 Mar
vs Miami FC
2–4
L
8 Mar
vs Hartford Athletic
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indy Eleven and Sporting JAX.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sporting JAX 16%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 2–0 Sporting JAX, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX?
Indy Eleven vs Sporting JAX (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
New Mexico United3
Las Vegas Lights1
Oakland Roots2
El Paso Locomotive1
Phoenix Rising1
San Antonio1