New Mexico United 59%Draw 22%Las Vegas Lights 18%Expected goals 2.04 – 1.01
78%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓59% · @1.73
Double chanceNew Mexico United or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
New Mexico United welcome Las Vegas Lights to Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park for a USL Championship fixture on Sunday 10 May (02:00 WAT). In the table, New Mexico United are 1st, leading the league, on 52 points after 30 matches; Las Vegas Lights are 11th (in the drop zone) with 36. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
New Mexico United, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with El Paso Locomotive, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Las Vegas Lights, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lexington, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give New Mexico United 2.0 xG, Las Vegas Lights 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – New Mexico United 59%, draw 22%, Las Vegas Lights 18%.
Lower-risk option: New Mexico United or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: New Mexico United 2–1 Las Vegas Lights. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
New Mexico United59%fair 1.68 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.65
Las Vegas Lights18%fair 5.41 · @4.10
3.05Expected goals
2.04New Mexico United xG
1.01Las Vegas Lights xG
59%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–110%
1–010%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 2.0 – 1.0 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
New Mexico United
Las Vegas Lights
Attack vs USL Championship average
+23%
-1%
Goals conceded vs average
-22%
+11%
Our expected goals here
2.06
0.94
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New Mexico United to win✓
59%
1.68
1.73
Double chance
New Mexico United or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.65
Draw no bet
New Mexico United (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
New Mexico United -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
First team to score
New Mexico United to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
New Mexico United ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
New Mexico United – last 6
DWLWLL
7 May
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs Alta
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Phoenix Rising
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
WDLDLW
3 May
vs Lexington
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Boise
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oakland Roots
2–4
L
12 Apr
vs Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–3
L
29 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Mexico United and Las Vegas Lights.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Las Vegas Lights 18%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 2–1 Las Vegas Lights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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