Phoenix Rising 54%Draw 24%Monterey Bay 22%Expected goals 1.82 – 1.11
78%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultPhoenix Rising to win ✓54% · @1.77
Double chancePhoenix Rising or draw ✓78% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:30 WAT, Sunday 19 July: Phoenix Rising v Monterey Bay in the USL Championship, played at Wild Horse Pass Stadium. In the table, Phoenix Rising are 8th, lower half, on 40 points after 30 matches; Monterey Bay are 12th (in the drop zone) with 24. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Phoenix Rising, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Alta, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.7 conceded per game.
Monterey Bay, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Las Vegas Lights, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Monterey Bay, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.2 for Phoenix Rising.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Phoenix Rising 1.8 xG, Monterey Bay 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Phoenix Rising 54%, draw 24%, Monterey Bay 22%.
Lower-risk option: Phoenix Rising or draw (78%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Phoenix Rising 1–1 Monterey Bay. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Phoenix Rising54%fair 1.85 · @1.77
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.60
Monterey Bay22%fair 4.51 · @3.85
2.93Expected goals
1.82Phoenix Rising xG
1.11Monterey Bay xG
62%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
1–26%
3–16%
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.8 – 1.1 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Phoenix Rising
Monterey Bay
Attack vs USL Championship average
+15%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
+13%
Our expected goals here
1.94
1.21
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Phoenix Rising to win✓
54%
1.85
1.77
Double chance
Phoenix Rising or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Draw no bet
Phoenix Rising (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Monterey Bay +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Phoenix Rising to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Phoenix Rising ahead at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Phoenix Rising / FT Phoenix Rising✗
33%
2.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Recent results
Phoenix Rising – last 6
LLLDLL
12 Jul
@ Alta
1–2
L
5 Jul
@ Colorado Springs
1–3
L
21 Jun
vs Oakland Roots
3–4
L
14 Jun
@ El Paso Locomotive
1–1
D
11 Jun
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
7 Jun
@ New Mexico United
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 6
LDWLWW
12 Jul
vs Las Vegas Lights
2–3
L
5 Jul
@ San Antonio
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–0
W
18 Jun
@ FC Tulsa
0–2
L
11 Jun
vs Sporting JAX
2–1
W
31 May
vs Loudoun United
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Phoenix Rising and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Monterey Bay 22%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Phoenix Rising 1–1 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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