Value bet: Louisville City to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLouisville City to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceLouisville City or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Orange County SC vs Louisville City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Sunday 16 August: Orange County SC v Louisville City in the USL Championship, played at Championship Soccer Stadium. In the table, Orange County SC are 9th, lower half, on 39 points after 30 matches; Louisville City are 4th (among the top four) with 47.
Current form
Orange County SC, last 5: LWWLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Tampa Bay Rowdies, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Louisville City, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Tampa Bay Rowdies, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Orange County SC 0.9 xG, Louisville City 2.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Orange County SC 14%, draw 22%, Louisville City 64%.
Lower-risk option: Louisville City or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Louisville City to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Orange County SC 0–2 Louisville City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Orange County SC14%fair 7.10 · @4.00
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.60
Louisville City64%fair 1.56 · @1.75
2.90Expected goals
0.86Orange County SC xG
2.04Louisville City xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Orange County SC 0.9 – 2.0 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✓
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Louisville City or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.67
Draw no bet
Louisville City (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Louisville City -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Louisville City to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Louisville City ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✓
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Orange County SC – last 6
LWWLDD
9 Aug
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–3
L
2 Aug
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Monterey Bay
2–1
W
12 Jul
vs Colorado Springs
0–3
L
9 Jul
@ Hartford Athletic
2–2
D
5 Jul
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Louisville City – last 6
DDLWWL
13 Aug
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs San Antonio
1–1
D
2 Aug
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–5
L
30 Jul
vs Birmingham Legion
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Trinidad and Tobago
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orange County SC and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Orange County SC have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Louisville City 64%.
How many goals will there be in Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Orange County SC 0–2 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Orange County SC vs Louisville City?
Orange County SC vs Louisville City (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Championship Soccer Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Colorado Springs3
San Antonio0
El Paso Locomotive3
New Mexico United1
FC Tulsa0