Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sacramento Republic welcome Lexington to Heart Health Park for a USL Championship fixture on Sunday 16 August (04:00 WAT). In the table, Sacramento Republic are 2nd, among the top four, on 51 points after 30 matches; Lexington are 4th (among the top four) with 48. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sacramento Republic, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Pittsburgh Riverhounds, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Lexington, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Phoenix Rising, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Mar 2026) it ended Lexington 0–0 Sacramento Republic.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sacramento Republic 1.7 xG, Lexington 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sacramento Republic 57%, draw 26%, Lexington 17%.
Lower-risk option: Sacramento Republic or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Sacramento Republic to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sacramento Republic or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Lexington. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sacramento Republic57%fair 1.75 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.25
Lexington17%fair 5.84 · @3.50
2.55Expected goals
1.71Sacramento Republic xG
0.84Lexington xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.7 – 0.8 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
Our pick is Sacramento Republic or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lexington 17%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
Sacramento Republic vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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