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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Lexington v Las Vegas Lights: numbers & prediction

USL Championship · USA · Toyota Stadium

Lexington

LWWDW
2–0
FT

Las Vegas Lights

WWDDW
Lexington 60%Draw 24%Las Vegas Lights 16% Expected goals 1.92 – 0.90
77%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultLexington to win ✓60% · @1.55
Double chanceLexington or draw ✓84% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12

Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

00:00 WAT, Sunday 23 August: Lexington v Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship, played at Toyota Stadium. In the table, Lexington are 4th, among the top four, on 48 points after 30 matches; Las Vegas Lights are 11th (in the drop zone) with 36. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Lexington, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sacramento Republic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Las Vegas Lights, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Brooklyn, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Las Vegas Lights, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.7 for Lexington.

Head to head

When they last met (3 May 2026) it ended Las Vegas Lights 2–1 Lexington.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Lexington 1.9 xG, Las Vegas Lights 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 56%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Lexington 60%, draw 24%, Las Vegas Lights 16%.
  • GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lexington 2–0 Las Vegas Lights. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Lexington60%fair 1.66 · @1.55
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.95
Las Vegas Lights16%fair 6.34 · @5.10
2.82Expected goals
1.92Lexington xG
0.90Las Vegas Lights xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

From our goals model: Lexington 1.9 – 0.9 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLexington to win ✓60%1.661.55
Double chanceLexington or draw ✓84%1.191.11
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗56%1.781.73
Draw no betLexington (draw no bet) ✓79%1.26–
Asian handicapLexington -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓61%1.63–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77%1.301.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗54%1.841.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓67%1.481.42
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓85%1.18–
First team to scoreLexington to score first ✓64%1.56–
Half-time resultLexington ahead at half-time ✗44%2.26–
Half-time / full-timeHT Lexington / FT Lexington ✗39%2.57–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.12–

Recent results

Lexington – last 6

LWWDWL
16 Aug@ Sacramento Republic0–1L
9 Augvs Phoenix Rising1–0W
2 Augvs Monterey Bay3–2W
26 Jul@ FC Tulsa0–0D
23 Julvs Oakland Roots2–0W
16 Julvs New Mexico United1–4L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Las Vegas Lights – last 6

WWDDWW
16 Augvs Brooklyn2–1W
9 Aug@ Miami FC1–0W
6 Augvs Oakland Roots0–0D
2 Augvs Phoenix Rising1–1D
26 Jul@ Detroit City1–0W
19 Jul@ San Antonio2–1W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

3 May 2026Las Vegas Lights v Lexington2–1
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head page →

USL Championship table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1New Mexico United301578+1152
2Sacramento Republic3013125+1451
3El Paso Locomotive3015510+1050
4Lexington3014610+1848
5Colorado Springs301389+647
6San Antonio3011127+245
7FC Tulsa3011109+343
8Phoenix Rising30101010-140
9Orange County SC3010911-1039
10Oakland Roots3091110-138
11Las Vegas Lights3010614-736
12Monterey Bay306618-2024

More USL Championship predictions

League hub
FT Brooklyn0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds1 135%2.65X22%3.30244%2.38 1.2–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓
FT Detroit City1 Tampa Bay Rowdies0 136%2.95X25%2.90240%2.40 1.2–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Indy Eleven2 Louisville City1 130%3.10X21%3.55249%2.00 1.3–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Rhode Island3 Monterey Bay1 167%1.40X22%4.20212%6.60 2.1–0.8xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Birmingham Legion2 Sporting JAX3 167%1.55X20%4.00213%4.50 2.2–0.9xG 1Birmingham Legion to win 67%@1.55 ✗
FT Colorado Springs0 El Paso Locomotive1 143%2.00X22%3.25234%3.30 1.6–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 64%@1.62 ✗
FT San Antonio0 Oakland Roots1 147%2.10X22%3.20231%3.00 1.5–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 59%@1.70 ✗
FT Orange County SC1 FC Tulsa5 141%2.45X23%3.10236%2.50 1.3–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@1.75 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights?

On our numbers Lexington have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Las Vegas Lights 16%.

How many goals will there be in Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights?

Our predicted score is Lexington 2–0 Las Vegas Lights, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights?

Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.