Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 11 October the USL Championship brings Indy Eleven against Tampa Bay Rowdies at Michael A. Carroll Stadium. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Indy Eleven are 9th, lower half, on 34 points after 30 matches; Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st (leading the league) with 61. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Indy Eleven, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Loudoun United, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Tampa Bay Rowdies, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Miami FC, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (3 May 2026) it ended Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Indy Eleven.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Indy Eleven 0.8 xG, Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Indy Eleven 18%, draw 23%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 59%.
Lower-risk option: Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Tampa Bay Rowdies to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw (82%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Indy Eleven 0–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Indy Eleven18%fair 5.43 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
Tampa Bay Rowdies59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
2.54Expected goals
0.83Indy Eleven xG
1.71Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Indy Eleven 0.8 – 1.7 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers Indy Eleven have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 59%.
How many goals will there be in Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is Indy Eleven 0–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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