Atletico DE Rafaela v Atlanta Prediction & Expected Goals (4 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtlanta to win ✓38% · @2.80

Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.57

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗72% · fair 1.39

Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.77

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 4 October the Primera Nacional brings Atletico DE Rafaela against Atlanta at Estadio Nuevo Monumental. Kick-off: 21:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th, lower half, on 47 points after 36 matches; Atlanta are 2nd (among the top four) with 62. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Atletico DE Rafaela, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Gimnasia Y Tiro, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Atlanta, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Agropecuario, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Atlanta, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Atletico DE Rafaela.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 xG, Atlanta 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico DE Rafaela 37%, draw 25%, Atlanta 38%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Atlanta to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Atlanta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atletico DE Rafaela37%fair 2.73 · @2.60

Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.80

Atlanta38%fair 2.61 · @2.80

1.85Expected goals

0.91Atletico DE Rafaela xG

0.94Atlanta xG

49%Both score

28%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–016%

0–115%

1–014%

1–113%

0–27%

2–07%

From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 0.9 – 0.9 Atlanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atlanta to win ✓	38%	2.61	2.80 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	75%	1.33	1.40
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	51%	1.94	1.57
Draw no bet	Atlanta (draw no bet) ✓	51%	1.96	–
Asian handicap	Atletico DE Rafaela +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	65%	1.53	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	55%	1.81	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	72%	1.39	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	88%	1.13	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	96%	1.04	–
First team to score	Atlanta to score first	43%	2.34	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	52%	1.92	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Draw / FT Draw ✗	24%	4.21	–
Correct score	Correct score 0–1 ✗	15%	6.77	–

Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6

LWLLWD

27 Sep	@ Gimnasia Y Tiro	0–1	L
19 Sep	vs San Martin Tucuman	4–2	W
13 Sep	@ Gimnasia Jujuy	1–2	L
6 Sep	@ Agropecuario	0–2	L
29 Aug	vs Tristan Suarez	2–1	W
24 Aug	@ Club Atlético Güemes	0–0	D

1.2Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Atlanta – last 6

WDWWLL

27 Sep	vs Agropecuario	1–0	W
21 Sep	@ Tristan Suarez	0–0	D
12 Sep	vs Club Atlético Güemes	2–0	W
5 Sep	@ Chacarita Juniors	1–0	W
30 Aug	vs San Martin S.J.	0–1	L
26 Aug	@ Patronato	0–2	L

0.7Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

0%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	36	16	16	4	+18	64
2	Atlanta	36	19	5	12	+8	62
3	Temperley	36	16	13	7	+12	61
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	36	16	10	10	+4	58
5	Midland	36	15	10	11	+14	55
6	Deportivo Maipu	36	14	10	12	+9	52
7	Colegiales	36	14	10	12	+4	52
8	Gimnasia Y Tiro	36	14	10	12	+2	52
9	San Martin S.J.	36	13	12	11	+6	51
10	San Martin Tucuman	36	11	14	11	+2	47
11	Atletico DE Rafaela	36	12	11	13	-6	47
12	Agropecuario	36	12	10	14	-8	46
13	Quilmes	36	12	9	15	+3	45
14	Chacarita Juniors	36	12	6	18	-6	42
15	Almagro	36	11	9	16	-11	42
16	Patronato	36	7	17	12	-6	38
17	Nueva Chicago	36	9	10	17	-11	37
18	Club Atlético Güemes	36	6	9	21	-34	27

Team

Pts

+18

+12

+14

-6

-8

-6

-11

-6

-11

-34

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?

On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atlanta 38%.

How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?

Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 0–0 Atlanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta?

Atletico DE Rafaela vs Atlanta (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atletico DE Rafaela v Atlanta: numbers & prediction